Most people don't want to be mediocre. They don't want to be average. They also worry about various risks in their lives. People don't worry enough about the **risk** of mediocrity. Being mediocre is a risk and one that should be accounted for when evaluating other risks. This post is an exploration. --- - Fear can often be irrational, learn to ignore it? - Social pressure is the affirmation-seeking behavior of others? - Risk assessment is detrimental when innacurate? Entrepreneurs take risks. On the one hand, this seems risky. The guy who started the mobile app company and put all his personal wealth in, that is risk Elon with tesla/spaceX, that is risk Even so, the risk may not be as high as it appears from the outside. Each of those people in doing what they did built up a network and a reputation, not to mention deep knowledge. Even if they did "lost it all" they've only lost their money, which is easily the least important. The combination of knowledge, reputation and connections can get you money, but the inverse is not always true. No one can sell you a sterling reputation in a box. --- less extreme example of leaving your job. I have a friend who works for Google. He has a salary, a stock vesting schedule and very little oversight. At the office he works on what he wants, when he gets off work he has his own time. He's considered leaving for a long time but has never pulled the trigger. It's easy to see why—it's a comfortable gig that many would be envious of. Let's look at it from the other way around though: Why would he _want_ to leave? He wants a non-mediocre life. He wants to do more. He wants more agency. Let's tie it back to risk. First, there's opportunity cost: - No more salary, no more stock. Second, google has a hiring freeze at present. If he left it may well be a oneway door. **However**, he has no intention of leaving then turning right back around and asking for a job. If there's risk that he can't get hired back it needs to be considered in the future. What will google's hiring situation look like in a year? in three? we don't know. If you must make a guess then look at google's performance in the past. Generally, the company has grown. If i had to bet directionally, whether google will be in better shape in 3 years than it is now or not I'd take the positive bet. Focusing on google is missing the point though. Let's expand my friend's hypothetical options. What about other massive players? Facebook? Amazon? Microsoft? He could absolutely get a job at one of those companies. Working at a massive company is a skillset unto itself and other massive companies value it. He's very well positioned to make the jump and potentially even elevate his level within the new company above his former role. --- I get it, you're well-off friend has options, but how does this generalize? Let's say you're a mid-level manager at an accounting firm in Milwaukee and your'e thinking about leaving your job to strike off on your own and start a business. What is your risk? --- the opportunity cost exists. it is real and (most likely) non-negotiable—if you leave your job you're foregoing some amount of salary and maybe equity to boot. Coming to terms with this is key, but if you're considering leaving your job you've probably come to terms with it already at some level. --- a note about skin in the game. as an employee you most likely have limited skin in the game. you're action's might influence you're performance review each year which in turn will influence you're compensation, but it's highly abstracted, often subjective, and extremely low leverage (that guy who started hot-or-not (was it him?) who worked at HP got a 5k bonus for driving 500k in additional revenue) # leverage If you can build a feature, change a process or manage a team in such a way that you create 500k of additional value _for yourself_ then you have leverage. There's a disconnect between your input (time, energy) and you're output. --- Much talk about risk is really talking about fear, specifically fear of failure. When you think "what if I can't get a job?" "WHat if this hurts my future economic opportunities?" that's fear talking. Fear of some negative outcome. here's the thing about fear: the fear itself is worse than the thing you're afraid of. Let's distinguish two types of fear: Fear for your life vs social fear. I.e. fear of physical danger vs fear of a socially unacceptible outcome. You might be thinking that job security is very much a physical far—without a job you have nowhere to sleep and nothing to eat—and that's fair. However, I would say it still operates as a social fear because it's abstract. if you leave you're job tomorrow you're not going to starve tomorrow. or maybe what I mean to say is: If leaving your job tomorrow would cause you to starve or put you in physical peril you should not leave your job. but we're talking about someone with enough means to leave their job and not risk the physically negative outcomes. # fear have you ever approached an attractive stranger? have you ever asked for a raise? have you ever had to fire someone? These are all situations that can cause a significant amount of _fear_ in most people, but if you've ever been in a situati on like that and followed through you know that the fear of failure _far outweights_ the emotional impact of the failure itself. Let us remember the Bene Gesserit litany against fear: > Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain. — Frank Herbert --- # social signaling and affirmation-seeking The other side of the risk equation is the perception of others. Generally, how you're friends and family view your actions will have a big impact on them. The problem is, you're friends and family, you're circle, probably thinks with the communal brain of common knowledge. The communal brain says: "You have a good job, don't leave. You've won the game don't fuck it up!" Most likely there were times when that line of reasoning was very beneficial in the past, however, it's not the case today. Furthermore, you may run into the problem of affirmation seeking. Affirmation-seeking people subconsciously regret their own decisions, but manage to keep this regret at bay be doing their utmost to construct an illusion that they were correct. The lynchpin of this illusion is affirmation by others. Let's say you're good friend has worked in their job for 20 years. About 15 years ago they had the urge to strike out on their own and pursue their dreams. Because of fear, of societal pressure, of the economy or the alignment of the moon they didn't follow through. Now, here you are talking about doing what they never did. Subconsciously they want you to choose what they chose, validating their illusion that they made the correct choice. They will sacrifice your happiness to support _their_ illusion. It's important to reiterate this is subconscious. These affirmation-seeking friends aren't consciously trying to keep you from your dreams—they aren't malicious people—but consciously or not they may end up doing it.